"Stock Intraday Tips"

Base business orders to grow, large orders taking time: Thermax reiterated its ability to win base business orders of at least Rs5-6bn per quarter and hence, does not expect the order flow to be below the Q3FY12 levels (Rs5.9bn). The peak base business order flow was Rs10.5bn in FY08. The current capacities can take base business orders up to Rs14bn per quarter.

However, with very few enquiries for large and captive power plants, the order flow is likely to be muted for the next two quarters due to the given current issues like coal availability and higher cost of funds. The company expects the recovery to happen by H2FY13. Sectors like Cement, Steel and Oil & Gas (refineries) are likely to lead the recovery apart from sectors like Food processing, Hotels and Hospitals which are already investing. Power sector is likely to take time to recover.

Super critical JV update: The JV for super critical boilers with Babcock & Wilcox is on track and is likely to be commissioned by September 2012. However, with no enquiries in the pipeline, it is unlikely that the JV will have an order at the time of commissioning. The burn out for JV assuming no revenues in FY13 or FY14 (due to lack of orders) could be ~Rs1bn (Thermax share 51%). Some of the losses could possibly be offset if the JV were to get some international orders from its partner Babcock and Wilcox. The management did not sound too worried as the company’s share of losses in the JV is not large compared to the net worth.

Management believed that apart from issues like coal and land, the biggest hurdle for Power market will be for promoters garner equity. It also believes that though current preference is for Super critical plants, but given the constraint of coal and equity, smaller size plants of 150MW and 300MW might be back in favour. On issues of lack of coal linkage to captive plants, company commented that the economics will work for captive plants even if they have to import coal and run the plant as price of electricity is likely to go up further with capacity addition lagging target.

Stock Valuation and Recommendation: The Stock Intraday at 17.8x FY13E earnings. Prabhudas Lilladher believes that though the next few quarters will be weak in terms of earnings and order flow, Thermax’s ability to bag base orders of ~Rs5-6bn per quarter gives us a confidence that it will be able to tide the slowdown and participate in the upturn of the cycle meaningfully and surprise positively in terms of order flow. Expectation of rate cut aiding recovery of capex cycle will also help support multiples. Prabhudas Lilladher maintains their ‘Accumulate’ rating on the Stock Intraday tips.

Leave a Reply


best-intraday-calls (1) best-shares-for-intraday-trading (1) best-stock-tips-for-intraday (1) Free Intraday tips (17) Free Intraday Tips By SMS (1) free intraday tips for today (1) free intraday tips for tomorrow (1) Free Intraday Tips On Mobile (1) Free Share Tips (30) Free Tips (1) free-intraday-nifty-tips (1) free-intraday-trading-tips-on-mobile (1) Free-NSE-intraday-tips (1) free-share-tips-for-intraday (1) free-stock-market-tiips-for-intraday (2) free-tips-for-intraday-trading-on-mobile (1) Intraday Share Tips (1) Intraday Share Tips For Today (1) Intraday Share Tips Free (1) Intraday Share Trading (1) Intraday Stock Tips (3) intraday stock trading (12) Intraday tips (15) Intraday Tips Blog (1) Intraday Tips BSE (1) Intraday Tips For Today (1) Intraday Tips Free Trial (23) Intraday tips Nifty trading tips Intraday Tips Free Trial (1) Intraday-best-tips (1) intraday-call-for-today (1) intraday-free-nifty-tips (1) intraday-market-tips (1) intraday-nifty-future-trading-tips (1) intraday-nifty-tips (1) intraday-share-market-tips (1) intraday-share-tips (1) intraday-share-trading (1) Intraday-shares-tips (1) intraday-stock-option-tips (1) Intraday-sure-tips (1) intraday-tips (1) intraday-tips-for-commodity (1) intraday-trading (1) intraday-trading-stocks (1) intraday-trading-tips (1) intraday-trading-tips-free (1) intraday-trading-tips-trial (1) intradaytips (1) nifty (1) nifty tips (1) Nifty Trading Tips (16) nifty-tips (1) option-tips (1) share-tips (1) share-tips-intraday-free (1) share-tips-trial (1) Shyamadvisory (1) Stock Intraday (1) Stock Intraday Tips (11) stock market intraday tips (1) Stock market tips (19) stock tips intraday (1) Stock Trading (1) Stock Trading Tips (36) stock-tips (2) sureshot-tips (1) tips free trial (1) today-intraday-call (1) trading-tips (1)