We had witnessed heavy & abnormal volatility in markets last week – ZIG ZAG seen in last 3 trading sessions – seems something cooking bad in the markets unknowingly… Sharp rise & drop about 100-150 points in few seconds – gives panic on both sellers & buyers…
FII’s continued to be net seller in first 2 weeks of Jan 2011 for a tune about Rs.4300 crore while Rs.3000 selling are absorbed by Domestic institutions… But how long DII’s can absorb the selling… As we indicated in our Diwali Special Article – Developed markets like U.S are in recovery path – FII may take back money to home countries if nothing found reliable in Asian Markets… Dollar Strengthening also a major factor…
Next Major factor to watch is the forthcoming Q3 numbers of industry leaders in coming week (AXISBANK, BAJA-AUTO, BHEL, GAIL, HCLTECH, ITC, LT, PNB, RIL & TCS)… Outlook by industry leaders to be monitored closely, that may have some negative surprise driven by higher inflation and commodity prices…
Finally, what will be the impact of SEBI’s restriction on ANIL AMBANI (ADAG GROUP), RELINFRA & RNRL’s participation in secondary markets – Now major question is in what way these companies going to go ahead with their earlier fund raising plans and how its going to effect the earning hereon & how their shareholders going to treat it… We expect major damage in these stock – May see a blood bath also, because this announcement came after market closed on Friday 14 Jan-11…
The Volatility is clear evidence of Punters market than traders market… Clear resemblance of Sep 2010… When considering all the above factors, it seems market to give a bit more correction, with immediate support seen at 5550 and major support at 5400 levels with upside cap at 5850-5900 levels… One can start invest in good quality large caps when market tanks & consolidates near 5400-5500 levels…
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